I think the beauty of the Game Awards is that whether you are a casual gamer or hardcore, there is a lot to be excited about. Any gamer can get excited about whatever big reveals and gameplay trailers will show up on Thursday night. And for those like me that have actually played the vast majority of games up for nomination, it becomes a very fun night of seeing who wins when you have legitimate opinions on all the categories.
I will save my actual opinions for my personal year end lists. But for now, this post is just about me trying to figure out who will win each category. For fun, I tried making up betting odds based on the discourse I’ve heard on twitter and various podcasts. For those not in the loop, minus -180 means that $180 would need to be wagered to make $100. +350 means $100 would win you $350 if it hits.
(Note: I skipped several categories that I just personally don’t feel I would have much expertise in, like innovation in accessibility, fighting, and ongoing games)
GAME OF THE YEAR
Alan Wake 2 (+350)
Baldur’s Gate 3 (-180)
Marvel’s Spider-Man 2 (+350)
Resident Evil 4 (+2000)
Super Mario Bros. Wonder (+900)
The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom (+150)
Both Baldur’s Gate 3 and Tears have the same Opencritic score, and it seems clear it will be one of those two. Baldur’s Gate 3 has a few things in its favor though. First off, it came out later in the year and is fresher in voters minds. I also think the fact that BG3 was such a legitimate surprise to so many people has given it a bit more of a glow for voters, and they will want to reward that. Alan Wake 2 strikes me as the best dark horse bet, as it is the kind of unique and “artsy” game that can gain traction with gaming press.
BEST GAME DIRECTION
Alan Wake 2 (-110)
Baldur’s Gate 3 (+175)
Marvel’s Spider Man 2 (+1000)
Super Mario Bros. Wonder (+750)
The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom (+115)
This is a tricky one. The category is described as “awarding outstanding creative vision and innovation in game direction and design”. I think by that definition, it is tough to pass up on Tears of the Kingdom, which did some amazing things with its building system, and utilizing that with its puzzles. Alan Wake 2 probably has a lot more innovation in its art direction more than actual game direction. However, Alan Wake 2 has one of the coolest set piece moments of the year which ties in to the creative element of the award, and it’s the moment that everyone is talking about right now. I’m going to say the voters get it right, and award Tears for what it did though. Tears was considered the no doubt game of the year when it was released, and I think voters will want to give it any award they can if they didn’t vote it Game of the Year. With no Baldur’s Gate 3 here, that clears the way for Tears.
BEST NARRATIVE
Alan Wake 2 (+120)
Baldur’s Gate 3 (-150)
Cyberpunk: Phantom Liberty (+300)
Final Fantasy XVI (+700)
Marvel’s Spider-Man 2 (+1500)
If Baldur’s Gate 3 is going to win Game of the Year as I suspect, then it is going to win plenty of other awards too. BG3 has a strong story, and the player choice allows it to be a bit unique for everyone. Alan Wake 2 has a more tightly woven story that might be more in the wheelhouse for a lot of critics, but once again, BG3 has to be the favorite here. Phantom Liberty would be a surprising winner, but not completely shocking. A lot of folks want to give Cyberpunk its flowers for the 2.0 update, and this might be the best category to do so in.
BEST ART DIRECTION
Alan Wake 2 (-350)
Hi-Fi Rush (+250)
Lies of P (+1500)
Super Mario Bros. Wonder (+2000)
The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom (+1500)
I think Alan Wake 2 is a frisky dark horse to take more awards than expected on Thursday night, but this is the one that feels close to inevitable. Alan Wake 2 is an incredible looking game from a pure technical standpoint, and it is no slouch on the creative side of things either with its consistently creepy atmospheres. The “We Sing” level also helps put it on another level. I can’t completely sleep on Hi-Fi Rush, as it has a beautiful and vibrant look. The way all the environments in the game move to the beat was one of the coolest art related gaming elements of 2023, but Alan Wake 2 seems like it has too much momentum here.
BEST SCORE AND MUSIC
Alan Wake 2 (+150)
Baldur’s Gate 3 (+800)
Final Fantasy XVI (-300)
Hi-Fi Rush (+200)
The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom (+1000)
Final Fantasy XVI already won best audio at the Golden Joysticks, and it seems unlikely that it misses out for its music here. The soundtrack is simply a masterpiece, that both soars when it needs to be epic, and soothes in the quieter moments. Alan Wake 2 has some awesome music, so good that “Old Gods of Asgard” will actually be there to perform on Thursday night. I can’t completely discount it because of the power of the “We Sing” level. Hi-Fi Rush is a game built around music, and has some awesome licensed tracks in particular, but I’d be pretty surprised to see anything other than FF16 holding the trophy here.
BEST AUDIO DESIGN
Alan Wake 2 (+120)
Dead Space (+1000)
Hi-Fi Rush (-175)
Marvel’s Spider-Man 2 (+1000)
Resident Evil 4 (+200)
The award that is tailor made for survival horror games ends up with three of them nominated. I wonder if this could work against them, as perhaps all 3 steal some of the votes from each other. Meanwhile, Hi-Fi Rush has tons of critical buzz, and people are dying for a way to give it some glow. This feels like the best award to do so, as the way the entire game’s audio is built into the gameplay ends up being very special. All the survival horror games do their jobs extremely well, but Hi-Fi Rush seems well positioned to win this one.
BEST PERFORMANCE
Ben Starr (Final Fantasy XVI) (-500)
Cameron Monaghan (Star Wars: Jedi Survivor) (+1500)
Idris Elba (Cyberpunk 2077: Phantom Liberty) (+750)
Melanie Liburd (Alan Wake 2) (+2000)
Neil Newborn (Baldur’s Gate 3) (+1500)
Yuri Lowenthal (Marvel’s Spider-Man 2) (+1000)
Ben Starr has taken the gaming world by storm this year in multiple ways. Not only did he have a breathtaking performance as Clive in FF16, but he has released multiple funny videos on twitter using the Clive voice. And it turns out he truly loves video games and the industry as a whole. I think the performance speaks for itself and deserves to win, but the way he stayed in the public consciousness all year definitely helps too. He also won this award at the Golden Joysticks, so that could be a hint of things to come as well. I can’t completely dismiss the star power of Elba, but Starr should have this.
Funny enough, outside of Starr, no other nominee here made my personal top 5 performances of the year list. Stay tuned in a month for that list!
BEST INDEPENDENT GAME
Cocoon (+100)
Dave the Diver (+190)
Dredge (+400)
Sea of Stars (+140)
Viewfinder (+2000)
This might be the hardest category in the whole show. Dave the Diver is the highest rated of any of these on Opencritic, but I don’t feel like it has had the staying power of some of the others. I’m sure there are several who won’t vote for it because it isn’t an actual “independent” studio as well.
From there, I think it mostly comes down to Cocoon vs. Sea of Stars. I feel like more people have played Cocoon, and it is a short game which helps. Meanwhile, Sea of Stars has a very hardcore fanbase, and is also very good at what it does. I’m leaning Sea of Stars simply because voters have another chance to give Cocoon flowers very easily in the next category.
BEST DEBUT INDIE GAME
Cocoon (-250)
Dredge (+200)
Pizza Tower (+400)
Venba (+900)
Viewfinder (+500)
Logically, the most likely winners here are the three that made it to the best indie game category. I don’t think Pizza Tower can be completely slept on, as it has some incredible reviews and some very passionate fans. But with Sea of Stars out of the way, Cocoon should have a clear path to victory here.
BEST ACTION GAME
Armored Core VI: Fires of Rubicon (+200)
Dead Island 2 (+2000)
Ghostrunner 2 (+2000)
Hi-Fi Rush (-250)
Remnant 2 (+2000)
I will be absolutely stunned if anything besides Hi-Fi Rush or Armored Core VI wins this one. Both are fantastic games in their own right, and both have some very passionate fans. Between the difficulty of AC6, and the rhythm elements of Hi-Fi Rush, both have things that can turn people off too. I do think Hi-Fi Rush was a bigger story and had a bit more mass appeal though, so I think it takes it.
BEST ACTION/ADVENTURE GAME
Alan Wake 2 (+175)
Marvel’s Spider-Man 2 (+300)
Resident Evil 4 (+800)
Star Wars: Jedi Survivor (+1500)
The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom (-200)
Wow. What a beast of a category. With four of these games in the actual game of the year, this award will be an early indicator of which game has the real shot of beating Baldur’s Gate 3. Given that I think Zelda will be the runner up this year, that is my pick, but once again, keep an eye out for Alan Wake 2.
BEST RPG
Baldur’s Gate 3 (-4000)
Final Fantasy XVI (+1500)
Lies of P (+2000)
Sea of Stars (+2000)
Starfield (+2000)
Only one of these made the Game of the Year ranks, so that is a bit of a giveaway. Baldur’s Gate 3 steamrolls through here.
BEST FAMILY
Disney Illusion Island (+2000)
Party Animals (+2000)
Pikmin 4 (+1500)
Sonic Superstars (+2000)
Super Mario Bros. Wonder (-4000)
Once again, only one of these is in the Game of the Year ranks, so it’s pretty simple.
Best Sim/Strategy
Advance Wars 1+2 Re-Boot Camp (+2000)
Cities: Skylines 2 (+2000)
Company of Heroes 3 (+2000)
Fire Emblem Engage (+1500)
Pikmin 4 (-2000)
Only one of these games had both critical buzz, and was played by a lot of people. It’s really tough to see Pikmin 4 losing this one.
Best Multiplayer
Baldur’s Gate 3 (+250)
Diablo IV (+175)
Party Animals (+2000)
Street Fighter 6 (+150)
Super Mario Bros. Wonder (+175)
Wow. I have absolutely no idea how this one will be voted on. I feel like Baldur’s Gate 3 can’t be discounted because it was so huge this year, but I’m not sure how many people really played it with multiplayer. Mario has easy to use multiplayer, but once again, I feel like most people played it solo. Diablo IV can be played solo, but most people hardcore into that game are playing with someone else. Street Fighter 6 is the only more traditional head to head multiplayer game here besides Party Animals. I think Street Fighter 6 has to be the favorite because of that, but I’m guessing there will be a fighting game tax against SF6, and the hardcore Diablo 4 fans will push it through.
BEST ADAPTION
Castlevania: Nocturne (+2000)
Gran Turismo (+2000)
The Last of Us (-1500)
The Super Mario Bros. Movie (+1000)
Twisted Metal (+2000)
The Last of Us took over not just gaming discourse, but prestige TV discourse in general for a couple of months. It is clearly cruising to a win here, even though Mario did have great reviews and a gigantic release as well.
MOST ANTICIPATED GAME
Final Fantasy VII Rebirth (-300)
Hades 2 (+200)
Like a Dragon: Infinite Wealth (+1000)
Star Wars: Outlaws (+800)
Tekken 8 (+1500)
I think the killer hype trailers have probably cemented this one for Rebirth. This is a completely pointless award, but you know what, it’s fun, it’s an award show, whatever!
I will report on twitter how my “bets” ended up. And stay tuned for my thoughts on the biggest winners of the show this weekend. Thanks for reading!
Big Nerd Gaming 
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