It’s time for one of my most unique blog posts, the fake betting awards post!
I’ll admit it, I love to gamble on sports in my free time. I’ve always been jealous when I look at how awards shows like the Oscars have betting lines, but The Game Awards do not. So, I did something about it last year. I made my predictions and made up my very own (fake) betting lines. This year, I’m taking it to another level and attaching a contest to it as well (see my social media feeds for more details there).
I actually did pretty decently last year, going 12-5. If I had bet $10 off all the lines I made, I would have roughly broken even, so that feels like I did a good job setting the lines at least.
With that, here are my betting lines and my personal picks. I put a fair bit of effort into this, so hopefully, I do even better this year. I did not do lines for categories that I don’t personally have a great feel for.
My picks are in bold. Enjoy!
Game of The Year
Astro Bot (-175)
Balatro (+1500)
Black Myth: Wukong (+2000)
Elden Ring: Shadow of the Erdtree (+200)
Final Fantasy VII: Rebirth (+140)
Metaphor: ReFantazio (+160)
This feels like one of the more interesting Game of the Year awards in a bit. Usually, it feels like it is coming down to 2-3 games at the most. This year, I won’t be shocked at all if four different games win.
Astro Bot heads in as both the favorite and my personal pick to win. First off, it is the highest rated game on OpenCritic this year with a 95. That puts it in 8th place all time on OpenCritic (since they started in 2013). There are years where the highest rated game of the year didn’t win, but most of those years are years where that game is at a 92 or so. When a game gets to the level Astro Bot is at, it does not tend to lose unless a game just as highly rated came out in the same year.
In terms of ratings, Shadow of the Erdtree is pretty close with a 94. While I did expect Erdtree to make it to this category despite being DLC, I do think the DLC element is what will hold it back from winning. I think the voting jury wanted to honor that game for what it did, but a DLC winning Game of the Year would create too much outrage, and I think voters will shy away. Not to mention, there are plenty of people who couldn’t even play that game because you have to get pretty far in Elden Ring to be able to do so.
Rebirth and Metaphor are my two with the best odds to upset Astro Bot here. I wonder if both being JRPGs will split the vote in a way that favors Astro Bot. Metaphor has recency on its side, but I still think Rebirth has a really hardcore fanbase that keeps it as the second most likely option.
Balatro and Wukong both have to be happy as hell just to be here, and either of them winning would be stunning.
In the end, it’s tough for me to see Astro Bot losing this one.
Best Game Direction
Astro Bot (-175)
Balatro (+1200)
Black Myth: Wukong (+2000)
Elden Ring: Shadow of the Erdtree (+500)
Final Fantasy VII: Rebirth (+130)
Metaphor: ReFantazio (+140)
This award is defined as “outstanding creative vision and innovation in game design.” While the nominees for this award are almost always the Game of the Year nominees, the winner is not always the same as the winner of Game of the Year.
For the most part, the odds from last time make sense with some small tweaks. Even if Erdtree pulls off the upset and wins Game of the Year, a DLC winning this award by definition seems nuts, so its odds get boosted significantly.
Rebirth and Metaphor both do amazing things, but they are also both built upon the back of past games, so I feel like that holds back the innovation elements. I only just started Wukong yesterday, but I haven’t seen any element of that game that seems particularly innovative to me.
I’d be shocked, but not totally blown away if Balatro pulled off a crazy upset here, as it really is brilliant in so many ways. But in the end, the Game of the Year favorite seems like the best bet here. Astro Bot has so many fun little touches that will benefit it greatly here.
Best Narrative
Final Fantasy VII Rebirth (+150)
Like a Dragon: Infinite Wealth (+200)
Metaphor: ReFantazio (-140)
Senua’s Saga: Hellblade II (+1500)
Silent Hill 2 (+300)
This category was not easy!
In the end, I think the Game of the Year contenders probably have the best shot here. Metaphor has a fantastic story, and it is my favorite of the year so far. I actually think Rebirth’s overall story is just “fine,” but it has a lot of great smaller stories told throughout. I give the edge to Metaphor, though. Part of it is my own personal evaluation. Part of it is the fact that Rebirth is mostly just retelling the story from the original game. I feel like that has to count against it a little.
The same goes for Silent Hill 2. I’m not discounting Silent Hill 2 either, though after Alan Wake 2 managed to grab Best Narrative from Baldur’s Gate 3 last year.
I have Infinite Wealth as the #3 most likely here. I’d have its odds upgraded if it managed to snag a Game of the Year nomination, but the fact that it didn’t makes me think it will have a tough road ahead of it, as it is a very story heavy game. I still think it has a shot, though.
The one game I felt pretty good about mostly dismissing was Hellblade II. It was nominated but did not win for its first game in 2017, and I actually think that game has a much better story than this one. I would be very stunned if it won.
Best Art Direction
Astro Bot (+800)
Black Myth: Wukong (-110)
Elden Ring: Shadow of the Erdtree (-110)
Metaphor: ReFantazio (+600)
Neva (+600)
This one feels like a very 50-50 two horse race to me. Both Erdtree and Wukong are extremely stunning games. The screenshots I saw of Erdtree’s environments constantly wowed me when that game came out, and Wukong in motion really looks great as well.
My personal favorite here is Neva, but being an indie game, I think that one has a very long road ahead of it to win here. Gris from the same developer was nominated in 2019 and lost out to Control. Metaphor and Astro Bot just aren’t even close to the two favorites in terms of art direction for me.
I’m leaning Wukong here. While Erdtree does quite a bit to separate itself visually from the original with its art direction, I think the new IP will get the benefit here. Elden Ring won this category in 2022, though, so it can not be discounted.
Best Score and Music
Astro Bot (+350)
Final Fantasy VII Rebirth (-150)
Metaphor: ReFantazio (+110)
Silent Hill 2 (+400)
Stellar Blade (+800)
This is another one that mostly feels like a two horse race, though an upset is certainly possible.
But to me, the two big JRPGs are clearly the frontrunners here. Both have epic soundtracks that carry you through some very long games. I can’t tell you how many times in those games that I was in a huge dungeon and was just vibing with the soundtrack.
Final Fantasy 7 Remake won this award in 2020, but I don’t think any game it was competing with was on the level of Metaphor. Still, I think Rebirth should be the favorite. It has a freaking concert series that sells out wherever it goes. As great as some of these other soundtracks are, I don’t think any of them could pull that off. Final Fantasy XVI also won this category last year. The Final Fantasy brand delivers with music, and people are comfortable voting for it even if they snub it in other categories. I won’t be shocked if Metaphor wins, but I do expect Rebirth to take this.
Best Audio Design
Astro Bot (-110)
Call of Duty: Black Ops 6 (+175)
Final Fantasy VII Rebirth (+150)
Senua’s Saga: Hellblade II (+175)
Silent Hill 2 (+300)
This category is tricky. First off, the audio design category has been extremely varied in years past. All sorts of different games and genres have won it, which makes it difficult to predict. Any of these games could easily win this one.
My lean is Astro Bot just because the sound design stood out in that game far more than anything else I’ve played this year. The variety of sound effects and dual sense implementation are so top tier. I truly believe the audio design was vital to that game’s success more than almost anything else.
But everything else here is also very strong. Call of Duty games have won the award in the past, so Black Ops 6 cannot be discounted. Rebirth was very acclaimed for its sound design, and it is a Game of the Year contender. Survival horror games are always in the mix here, so with Silent Hill 2 as the only one in that genre, it can definitely win.
It could be argued that the biggest contender should he Hellblade II, as the original game won this category. But as strong as that game was with its sound design, stuff like the voices in the head mechanic isn’t as crazy and new as it was when that first game came out, so I think that will diminish it a bit in the eyes of voters.
Either way, anyone can win this one.
Best Performance
Briana White as Aerith- Final Fantasy VII Rebirth (+125)
Hannah Telle as Max Caulfield- Life is Strange: Double Exposure (+500)
Humberly Gonzales as Kay Vess- Star Wars: Outlaws (+150)
Luke Roberts as James Sunderland- Silent Hill 2 (+200)
Melina Juergens as Senua- Senua’s Saga: Hellblade 2 (+150)
Phew. This one is very brutal. The only one I feel decent about mostly writing off is Hannah Telle as Max Caulfield. Life is Strange is probably the most low-profile game on this list, and this award pretty much always goes to someone in a very high-profile game.
From there, who knows. Briana White was not nominated for her performance in Final Fantasy VII Remake, but she is more of a star in Rebirth, and that could boost her.
While I haven’t played Silent Hill 2 yet, Luke Roberts has a decently prolific television career, and I’ve heard positive buzz about his performance.
Melina Juergens could be considered the favorite since she won the award in 2017. But I also wonder if that will make voters shy away.
A really good dark horse pick could be Humberly Gonzales. I thought she delivered a great performance as Kay Vess, and it was also one of the highest profile performances of the year.
I’m leaning Briana White, but I don’t feel great about it at all.
Best Independent Game
Animal Well (+1200)
Balatro (-4000)
Lorelei and the Laser Eyes (+2500)
Neva (+2000)
UFO 50 (+2500)
This one isn’t too complicated. In Game Awards history, every time an indie game has made it into the full on Game of the Year category, it goes on to win Best Independent Game as well. It’s not rocket science. Balatro has this.
Best Debut Indie Game
Animal Well (+1200)
Balatro (-4000)
Manor Lords (+2500)
Pacific Drive (+2500)
The Plucky Squire (+2000)
Once again, traditionally, if an indie game is in the Game of the Year category, they win this. This should be an easy Balatro win.
Best Action Game
Black Myth: Wukong (-300)
Call of Duty: Black Ops 6 (+400)
Helldivers II (+200)
Stellar Blade (+800)
Warrhammer 40,000: Space Marine 2 (+500)
While indie games that make the Game of the Year category always win the indie category, that isn’t always the case for other categories. It isn’t common, but in 2021, Returnal beat out Deathloop for Best Action Game despite Deathloop being a Game of the Year nominee and Returnal not being in the mix.
Normally, I will still lean heavily towards the game in the Game of the Year mix, and at the very least, Wukong still has to be the favorite here. But when you look at Wukong’s review scores, I still think it is pretty vulnerable here. That’s why my pick is Helldivers II. I’ve mostly picked my perceived favorites so far, but there are always one or two decent surprises, and this feels like one that is very possible.
I’m not sure exactly how the nominating process works, but if each press outlet has six picks, then just enough people being passionate about Wukong makes sense for that game getting over the hump and getting a nomination, as there are enough people that view that as Game of the Year to get it enough votes to slip in as 6th place. But with everyone voting on it head to head, I can see Helldivers II coming ahead. I’m sure Wukong will dominate the user vote here, but that only accounts for 10% of the voting weight. I think it’ll likely be very close, so I’m going with the underdog.
Black Ops 6 has enough buzz where it might have an outside shot, too, but I think Helldivers II has more passion behind it from the kinds of people who vote on these things.
Best Action/Adventure Game
Astro Bot (-1500)
Legend of Zelda: Echoes of Wisdom (+800)
Prince of Persia: The Lost Crown (+800)
Silent Hill 2 (+800)
Star Wars Outlaws (+1500)
I’m not getting cute with this one. Astro Bot is the Game of the Year favorite, and it is the only Game of the Year nominee on this list. I don’t think anyone else has a real shot here. Though man, I still say The Lost Crown is right up there with Astro Bot in terms of quality. We’ll save that discussion for the Big Nerd Gaming awards, though.
Best Role Playing Game
Dragon’s Dogma 2 (+2000)
Elden Ring: Shadow of the Erdtree (+150)
Final Fantasy VII Rebirth (+110)
Like a Dragon: Infinite Wealth (+800)
Metaphor: ReFantazio (+130)
This will be the most interesting category of the night before Best Game Direction in terms of trying to figure out the Game of the Year winner. We have four out of the six Game of the Year nominees in this category. Whoever wins this will be the only game that has a shot at taking down Astro Bot as the ultimate winner.
Once again, I can’t discount Erdtree here, but I think this is where the DLC elements will work against it. For me, it truly comes down to Rebirth vs. Metaphor. Metaphor has the more recent release, which probably helps, but Rebirth probably has a slightly bigger fanbase. I’ve seen very split predictions on this, so this is one of the most unpredictable categories of the night.
Best Fighting Game
Dragon Ball: Sparking! Zero (+800)
Granblue Fantasy Versus: Rising (+1500)
Marvel vs. Capcom Fighting Collection: Arcade Classics (+1000)
MultiVersus (+2000)
Tekken 8 (-1500)
This category is always interesting because it really showcases how few fighting games come out each year.
Tekken 8 is a very highly rated game, sitting at 90 on Opencritic. No one is close to this. Dragon Ball might have an outside shot because it was a way more recent release, but it seems pretty unlikely to me. Marvel vs. Capcom got some buzz earlier this year, but it’s a straight-up re-release and would be kind of disrespectful if that won. Tekken 8 it is.
Best Family Game
Astro Bot (-1800)
Legend of Zelda: Echoes of Wisdom (+800)
Plucky Squire (+2000)
Princess Peach: Showtime! (+2000)
Super Mario Party Jamboree (+2000)
Once again, there is no need to overthink this one. There is a very slight outside shot of Zelda pulling it off, but I just can’t see it. Astro Bot should take this easily given its position.
Best Sim/Strategy Game
Age of Mythology: Retold (+400)
Frostpunk 2 (+150)
Kunitsu-Gami: Path of the Goddess (+800)
Manor Lords (+400)
Unicorn Overlord (-110)
This one is interesting. If Satisfactory was here, I probably would have considered it one of the top 2 since it was the highest-rated sim/strategy game this year.
Instead, I’m leaning towards Unicorn Overlord. That game actually got the most buzz of any game here that I’ve seen on social media, and it is the highest-rated game here at 88. It also released on every console, which I feel like has to help.
Manor Lords made it into two categories, so I can’t overlook it too much, but it would be crazy for an early access game to win over Unicorn Overlord. The rest of the games were rated well, but not on the level of Unicorn Overlord.
Best Multiplayer
Call of Duty: Black Ops 6 (+150)
Helldivers II (-200)
Super Mario Party Jamboree (+300)
Tekken 8 (+400)
Warhammer 40,000: Space Marine 2 (+250)
In the last four years, the winners of this category have been Baldur’s Gate 3, Splatoon 3, It Takes Two, and Among Us. The year before that was Apex Legends. I say that to say that I feel like the voters overall prefer more co-operative and less hardcore experiences when it comes to this category. People really like Black Ops 6, and it definitely has a chance here, but I’m doubtful that it wins this category when it never has before in the history of the show.
Enter Helldivers II. Helldivers II took over the world for a bit this year and delivered something that truly felt unique. There are some other strong contenders here, but I just have a hard time seeing it losing.
And that’s it! Thanks for reading! I will recap how I did after the show.
If you want to see a contest I have attached to these odds, check out my social media feeds on either Twitter, Threads or Bluesky for the chance to win a free video game of your choice!
Big Nerd Gaming 
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