If you want to hear me talk about these predictions, check out The Big Nerd Gaming Podcast.
As my friend AndresPlays says, we have reached the time of year when I grow the most powerful.
All year, I’m cataloguing the games I play, and tracking many games for how good they are in very specific ways with all of my lists. When I reach the end of the year, I feel like I have a lot of useful information at my disposal, especially when it comes to The Game Awards.
Welcome to Year 2 of BigNerdGaming’s Game Awards coverage. I did my “way too early” predictions in June, I did a prediction podcast a week ago, and now I’m finally ready to drop my full official predictions.
I am pretty damn sure there is NO ONE ELSE on the internet doing this level of Game Awards nomination predictions. You’re welcome? I guess?
Last year, I got 73% of my predictions right and 88% of my locks. I really believe I can do better. This year, I’m hoping to be at 80%+ for my picks and 95%+ for my locks.
If you want to know what will happen in a week or two when Game Awards nominees drop, you are literally in the best place on the internet. These predictions are a combination of judging by my own experiences, looking at critic scores and reviews, and observing how things have gone in the past. Let’s get to it!
Anything with a star is what I consider a “lock”.
Game of the Year
-Clair Obscur: Expedition 33*
-Death Stranding 2
-Donkey Kong Bananza*
-Hades 2*
-Hollow Knight: Silksong*
-Split Fiction
The four locks are fairly obvious here. When deciding on what games will be nominated for “Game of the Year,” it’s always a balance of looking at both popularity and critical reception. Expedition 33, Donkey Kong Bananza, Hades 2, and Hollow Knight: Silksong are the best reviewed games this year. They also all have big player bases. I’d be stunned if any of these four didn’t make it.
The last two spots get a bit trickier, but I feel relatively confident that Death Stranding 2 will be one of the last two nominees. I’m just not quite “lock” levels of confident. It’s important to note that the original Death Stranding received a “Game of the Year” nomination in 2019, despite getting much lower review scores than Death Stranding 2 did. Death Stranding 2 is also more highly rated than all but one of the other games I’m considering for the last two slots. It’s tough not to invite Kojima to the big dance, even if I’d say his odds of winning are slim to none.
The last spot is incredibly difficult. I’ve been grappling with it for a month. I’d say it will come down to four of the highest-rated AAA releases left from this year: Ghost of Yotei, Kingdom Come: Deliverance 2, Monster Hunter: Wilds, and Split Fiction.
The one I feel most confident leaving off is Monster Hunter: Wilds. There was a lot of hype for that game early on, but it has died down considerably. I know not everyone feels this way, but I’ve seen a lot of people unhappy with the direction the game has gone since launch. The last Monster Hunter game received a nomination in 2018, and it does have great reviews, so I can’t fully count it out, though.
The biggest dark horse is definitely KCD2. This game has a very passionate fanbase that has consistently pushed for it to get recognition all year. I think in many years it would have a decent shot at getting a nomination, but its reviews are just a bit lower than some competitors, and I think it will just miss.
Finally, the big debate in my mind since Yotei’s launch has been whether Split Fiction or Ghost of Yotei would get the final spot. Ghost of Tsushima was nominated in 2020 despite slightly lower reviews than Yotei. It is also a big cinematic Sony game, which tend to do well here. But when I look back at 2020, despite Tsushima only being at an 85 on OpenCritic, it wasn’t really all that crazy that it received a nomination. It definitely passed up some higher rated games, but they were almost all indies, which are always at a disadvantage here. Yotei has to compete with much stiffer competition, and it is easily the lowest reviewed game of all the contenders I have here.
Meanwhile, Split Fiction is no joke, even though its early release has probably dimmed some of the enthusiasm around it. It sits at a 91 on OpenCritic, which is higher than the score Death Stranding 2 received. It is also the next game from a 2021 “Game of the Year” winner. And while Josef Fares is no Kojima, he is a guy that might be hard to keep out of the nominations.
I had Yotei in the last spot for weeks, but changed my mind to Split Fiction at the last second. What a tough call. I’m excited to see who comes out on top.
Best Game Direction
-Clair Obscur: Expedition 33*
-Death Stranding 2*
-Donkey Kong Bananza
-Ghost of Yotei
-Hollow Knight: Silksong
“Best Game Direction” tends to go to games nominated for “Game of the Year,” but there are occasional exceptions. Aside from just being a great game, this category also leans towards games that are either very cinematic or have unique gameplay loops.
Expedition 33 is an easy choice here, as I am about to have it just about everywhere. I also feel pretty confident that the media will reward Bananza for its really impressive destruction technology. The original Death Stranding actually won this category, so Death Stranding 2 also feels like a good bet. The gameplay loop doesn’t feel quite as innovative as it did in 2019 obviously, but it is still an impressive achievement, and it’s a very cinematic game.
While I left Yotei off my “Game of the Year” predictions, I think it might have a better chance of making it into “Best Game Direction” due to how cinematic the game is. Finally, I picked Silksong as the last choice, as I think it will be rewarded for its bold design.
The snubs are all the games that were on my “Game of the Year” nomination list, and the ones that were snubbed from that list.
Best Narrative
-Clair Obscur: Expedition 33*
-Death Stranding 2*
-Ghost of Yotei
-Kingdom Come: Deliverance 2*
-Silent Hill f
I actually feel like I have a decent chance to nail this one perfectly.
Expedition 33 and Death Stranding 2 are easy locks here. Expedition 33 is probably a lock to win the award, so that’s an easy pick. The original Death Stranding had a nomination here, and while I have a few problems with the storytelling in the sequel, it still delivers one hell of an experience and one of the best endings I’ve ever seen in a video game.
I was nervous about it, but I also set Kingdom Come: Deliverance 2 as a lock. It’s a big, sprawling RPG, but it actually has a pretty focused and compelling story. The side quests are also full of great narratives. I think this game was big enough and has enough hype to get the respect it deserves here.
I could probably set Ghost of Yotei as a lock, but instead I’ll just say that while I’m not putting it there, I’d be pretty surprised if it doesn’t end up getting nominated. I definitely see some that love the story, and others that aren’t as excited about it, but the original game had some criticism too and still made it here. This is the exact type of game that is “Game Awards bait” if you will.
The last slot was tough. I debated between Silent Hill f, Dispatch, Hades 2, Indiana Jones and the Great Circle, and Mafia: The Old Country.
As much as I’m enjoying Dispatch, I think the fact that at least the last episodes likely won’t be out right when nominations are happening will probably hold it back. The original Hades had a nomination for this award, but Hades 2 has mostly seen disappointment in its overall story, so I think it’s out. Mafia: The Old Country has a shot here, but I’m not sure if it had enough acclaim this year to make it. I’m also one of many who had some issues with the conclusion.
So that leaves Indiana Jones and Silent Hill f. Remember that because Indiana Jones was released in December, it qualifies for this year’s Game Awards, as it wasn’t out in time last year. I haven’t gotten around to Silent Hill f yet, but I’ve seen tons of compliments for its mature story. Silent Hill 2 was also in this category last year. Indiana Jones has a story that feels like it would fit right in among the films (I haven’t watched the films, but you know, I can read the vibes). In the end, I’m going with Silent Hill f since it’s a bit more mature, and because while I don’t think the December release will completely kill Indiana Jones, I don’t think it helps.
Best Art Direction
-Clair Obscur: Expedition 33*
-Death Stranding 2
-Dispatch
-Hades 2
-Ghost of Yotei*
Once again, Expedition 33 is an easy lock here. This is another one where it is probably a lock to win the award itself as well. Ghost of Yotei is also an easy lock. Ghost of Tsushima won this award in 2020, and I’d say there isn’t any fall off in the art this time around either.
While I didn’t give them lock status, I also feel pretty good about Death Stranding 2 and Hades 2. The original games for both of them received nominations, and I think they are both just as good this time around.
The last spot is tricky. I debated between Assassin’s Creed Shadows, Dispatch, Hollow Knight: Silksong, Monster Hunter: Wilds, and Sword of the Sea. I wouldn’t be stunned if any of these made it, but I had to go with Dispatch. Once again, I wonder if the fact that all of the episodes won’t be out yet around nomination time will hurt it. But you don’t need to see every episode to be blown away by the art direction here. It’s incredible in so many ways. All of the other games I listed do some impressive things. Shadows just looks great. Silksong has excellent animations and general enemy and world design. Monster Hunter: Wilds is stunning, and Sword of the Sea has tons of visual surprises. But it really should be Dispatch in the last slot, so I’m going to have faith in the critics who make these selections.
Best Score and Music
-Clair Obscur: Expedition 33*
-Death Stranding 2*
-Ghost of Yotei
-Hollow Knight: Silksong
-Mario Kart World
I’ve said that Expedition 33 is probably a lock to win both the “Art Direction” and “Narrative” awards. But it’s a super lock to win “Best Score and Music.” Not only is the soundtrack for the game unbelievably good, but the entire story behind the composer being found randomly posting his stuff online is the cherry on top. Geoff Keighley had an Expedition 33 music performance at Gamescom, and I expect we will have one at The Game Awards too. So that one is an easy pick.
Death Stranding 2 is also a very easy lock. The original game won this award in 2019, and I don’t see a reason for it not to make it back here.
From there, it’s a bit tougher. Ghost of Tsushima actually did not get a nomination in 2020 for this award, but I feel decent that Yotei will break through and get one. I don’t recall noticing the music nearly as much in Tsushima as I do in Yotei. I feel like the music leveled up, and given the general acclaim and popularity of the game, I think it will make it here.
I think Silksong’s soundtrack is excellent and one of the best this year. I’m a little less confident in this one, but I think it has a good shot at making it.
Finally, I decided to give Nintendo some love and slot in Mario Kart World. I only played that game for a few hours, but the Nintendo fans have gone nuts for that soundtrack, so I think it makes it in.
My main snubs are Doom: The Dark Ages and Hades 2. Both series have made it to this category before. I really like The Dark Ages soundtrack, but moving on from Mick Gordon really rubbed a lot of people the wrong way. I think the negative perception there will hurt it. I also like Hades 2 soundtrack well enough, but I never felt like it was as consistently great as the first game, so I guess I’m just hoping more people will view it the way I did. Indiana Jones likely also has a chance.
Best Audio Design
-Arc Raiders
-Donkey Kong Bananza
-DOOM: The Dark Ages*
-Ghost of Yotei
-Silent Hill f*
This category tends to be where FPS and survival horror games eat, but other genres tend to sneak in too.
My only locks are DOOM: The Dark Ages and Silent Hill f for this one. The Dark Ages is the best rated FPS this year, and that is usually enough! Same with Silent Hill f. As the best rated survival horror game of the year, the odds are overwhelming that it will be here. Both DOOM Eternal and Silent Hill 2 made it to this category in the recent past as well.
I had Donkey Kong Bananza as a lock for a bit, but I’ve thought better of it now. Either way, I still think it ends up here. The sound design with the general environment destruction in the game is really impressive, and “oh banana” is perhaps the most brilliant sound drop of the year.
The Ghost of Yotei also feels somewhat safe here, as Tsushima received a nomination for this category in 2020, and I don’t see why anything would be different now.
From there, I went with Indiana Jones and the Great Circle. I heavily considered Battlefield 6 and Black Ops 7 here, but I changed course for a few reasons. First off, Battlefield has traditionally never been as strong in this category. Call of Duty games tend to do well here, but Black Ops 7 is releasing a bit later than some other games, and I wonder if its release being so tight against the nomination deadline will hurt it. Indiana Jones did an amazing job with its sound design. I loved how it handled the iconic whip and hitting enemies with all sorts of different household objects, and I think it will be rewarded.
Update on Nov 8th: After playing Arc Raiders for the first time, I took out Indiana Jones and added it in. The sound design is vital for that game and it’s very good.
Best Performance
-Troy Baker as Indiana Jones (Indiana Jones and the Great Circle)*
-Jennifer English as Maelle (Expedition 33)*
-Erika Ishii as Atsu (Ghost of Yotei)*
-Johnny Santiago as Don Torrisi (Mafia: The Old Country)
-Ben Starr as Verso (Expedition 33)
This category is always so hard because there are so many options. Despite that, I managed to get to 3 locks, which helps a lot.
I’m not sure how much the December release date will hurt Indiana Jones at these awards, but this is the one category where I feel pretty decent that it will come through. Just about everyone was in love with Troy Baker’s performance as Indiana Jones last year. He even got a shout out from Harrison Ford at last year’s Game Awards. That feels like the kind of momentum that can last for 11+ months.
I also feel very confident in Jennifer English as Maelle. Obviously, at least one Expedition 33 performance is making this list, and she is the clear pick. English is fantastic throughout, and she has some name value from Baldur’s Gate 3, which can’t hurt.
Erika Ishii also feels like an easy pick. Daisuke Tsuji was nominated in this category in 2020 for Ghost of Tsushima, and I think Ishii blows him away. There might be more competition this year, but I still feel good about it.
Now things get tricky. I put Ben Starr as Verso as one of my last two picks. I think his performance is tremendous, and he has tons of star power and goodwill in the industry that I think will help. There have been plenty of cases in the past where two characters from the same game were nominated, so I’m also not worried about that aspect.
Finally, I put Johnny Santiago as Don Torrisi in here. This one might be too out there, but plenty of narrative heavy games that aren’t quite as popular have received nominations here before. Every Mafia review I read this year called out this performance, and with good reason. It’s really awesome. I think it sneaks in.
I have too many snubs to list, so check out the Big Nerd Gaming Podcast if you want to hear more.
Best Independent Game
-Blue Prince*
-Clair Obscur: Expedition 33
-Dispatch
-Hades 2*
-Hollow Knight: Silksong*
I have 3 pretty easy locks here. Hades 2 and Hollow Knight: Silksong are both in my “Game of the Year” picks, so of course they should be here as well. Blue Prince was also considered a “Game of the Year” nominee for much of the year, so it should be good to slide in here.
My fourth pick is Expedition 33. I had it as a lock for a while but took it off, as I wonder if there will be a backlash to calling it an indie game since it had a lot more funding than most games on here. The “made by 30 people” narrative also completely ignores subcontractors. But it has felt like Geoff Keighley has been pushing it as an indie game all year, as he made special note of how it was only made by a small studio at Summer Game Fest, so I’m going to slide it in, but I won’t be shocked if it misses here.
I’ve been on a real journey with my last pick. I thought Mina the Hollower would be an easy pick here, but then it got delayed. I then slotted in Pipistrello. I then changed my mind and picked Ball x Pit because it became a bit of a sensation.
Finally, I’m locking in Dispatch as my last pick. I was nervous about putting it here for a lot of reasons, but seeing that it has already surpassed 1 million in sales and seems to keep trending up makes me feel like it will have enough buzz to force its way in. The early reviews are great but not quite as strong as others, but those reviews were just looking at the first few episodes. As more episodes come out, it seems harder and harder to deny this game, in my view.
Best Action Game
-Arc Raiders
-Battlefield 6
-DOOM: The Dark Ages*
-Hades 2*
-Shinobi: Art of Vengeance*
“Best Action Game” is usually a more barren category, but we actually have a decent amount for it this year. The locks are easy enough. The original Hades won this category in 2020, and Hades 2 is even better rated. Doom: The Dark Ages and Shinobi are also very well rated action games with a track record of making it here.
From there, I went with Battlefield 6 for its mix of strong reviews and popularity.
The last pick was tough. Absolum is very well rated, but I don’t think it was big enough to make it here. As stated earlier, I think Black Ops 7 is coming out at a tough time for getting a nomination. I’m also not sure if Arc Raiders will qualify for this exact category.
So that leaves us with two Ninja Gaiden games: Ninja Gaiden: Ragebound and Ninja Gaiden 4. My initial lean was Ninja Gaiden 4, as that is the 3D game and the more “AAA” release. But the more I thought about it, the more I questioned that. At the last second, I switched to Ragebound. Ragebound was still very big this year, and it’s a solid 4 points higher than Ninja Gaiden 4 on OpenCritic. I think that will mean something, but it’s very close.
Update on Nov. 10: I have taken Ragebound out and inserted Arc Raiders.
Best Action/Adventure Game
-Death Stranding 2*
-Donkey Kong Bananza*
-Ghost of Yotei*
-Hollow Knight: Silksong*
-Indiana Jones and the Great Circle
Well, this category is pretty easy for the most part. We have three games that were in my “Game of the Year” picks in this genre, and one that I almost included. So Death Stranding 2, Donkey Kong Bananza, Ghost of Yotei, and Hollow Knight: Silksong are all simple enough.
For the last one, I am once again counting on critics to remember Indiana Jones and the Great Circle. It sits at an 87 on Opencritic, and if it had been released three months ago, I don’t think anyone would be questioning its inclusion. I also wonder if the PS5 release this year will help put it back on people’s radars.
Metal Gear Solid Delta and Silent Hill f are the snubs here.
Best RPG
-Clair Obscur: Expedition 33*
-Kingdom Come: Deliverance 2*
-Monster Hunter Wilds*
-Outer Worlds 2
-Trails in the Sky 1st Chapter
We have another three that are pretty easy locks here. Expedition 33 was a “Game of the Year” nominee pick, and KCD2 and Monster Hunter Wilds were just on the outside looking in, so that is simple enough.
From there, I think Outer Worlds 2 is in a good position to be here. It has very solid reviews, and when I was doing research for this, I was stunned at how prevalent the first game was in the nominations. So it should be back.
The last one is hard. There’s a lot I could switch it to, but I’m sticking with Trails in the Sky 1st Chapter here. That game is still sitting at a 90 on OpenCritic, and I just can’t ignore that. Sorry to Fantasy Life i, Oblivion Remastered, and many others.
Best Family Game
-Donkey Kong Bananza*
-Mario Kart World*
-Pokémon Legends: Z-A
-Sonic Racing: Crossworlds
-Split Fiction
It’s time for everyone’s favorite Nintendo category! The two obvious locks here are Donkey Kong Bananza and Mario Kart World, which are two highly rated Nintendo games.
I feel pretty confident that Split Fiction will be here, as It Takes Two won this category in 2021, but I’m just nervous about how that game will be classified this year, so it’s a pick but not a lock.
I also put Pokémon Legends in here, as it is the highest rated Pokémon game in quite a while, and it fits the criteria.
My original pick for the last spot was Fantasy Life i, but the more I thought about it, the more I worried that it doesn’t have the name recognition of some other games. So I switched to Sonic Racing: Crossworlds, which has the power of Sonic behind it and is very well rated.
Best Sim/Strategy
-Civilization 7
-Final Fantasy Tactics: The Ivalice Chronicles*
-Powerwash Simualtor 2
-The Hundred Line- Last Defense Academy
-Two Point Museum
This is always a funny category because I don’t think the people actually voting on this play most of these games.
My only lock here is Final Fantasy Tactics: The Ivalice Chronicles. It’s a remaster/remake type of game, which can be iffy sometimes, but there just isn’t much competition, and it is incredibly well rated.
From there, it’s tough, yet it’s not, because there are only so many options. Powerwash Simulator 2 got a lot of buzz this year, as did Two Point Museum. Hundred Line is a bit more niche, but it’s a legit “Game of the Year” for certain people, so I think it makes it in.
My last pick was Civilization 7. It got disappointing reviews, but they weren’t awful. I think the name value will be enough to carry it through. Apologies to Europa Universalis V and Dark Deity 2.
Best Multiplayer Game
-Arc Raiders
-Elden Ring: Nightreign
-Mario Kart World
-Monster Hunter Wilds*
-Split Fiction*
It’s time for a category that I do not partake in all that much!
The “locks” feel easy enough. Split Fiction and Monster Hunter Wilds are both at least near the “Game of the Year” conversation, so they are clear locks.
Surprisingly, Arc Raiders is probably my next closest thing to a lock, as it feels like it’s taking over right now, and the reviews are great. It might have dropped at the perfect time. From there, I think it will be hard for critics not to put Mario Kart World on the list. I feel like I’ve seen some negative feedback on that game recently, but it’s still a very well rated game.
Finally, I just find it hard to believe an Elden Ring game will get no mention at The Game Awards. That game has strong reviews, but not Elden Ring levels of reviews, so it feels like a flop in some ways. But most of those reviews really were critiquing the game for not being fun solo. It should fit in perfectly here.
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