Welcome to year three of my Game Awards winner predictions and fake betting odds.
This idea was born out of a simple and foolish desire. My desire to actually bet on The Game Awards. The betting site “Polymarket” now has odds for “Game of the Year,” but I really wish that I could bet on everything on actual sportsbooks the way people do with The Oscars. I want to do this simply because I’m invested in this niche enough that I think I would have a sizable edge over Vegas bookies who don’t know much about these things. Early betting odds for The Game Awards last year on offshore books had Black Myth Wukong as the favorite to win, and Astro Bot in second place with odds of +200. That means that if I had wagered $100 on Astro Bot, I would have profited $200 on that bet. That would have been easy freaking money! Unfortunately, I’m not quite degenerate enough to have an account on those types of sites.
So this article is my way of predicting the winners of the awards, while trying to imagine what odds made by someone who knows what they are talking about would look like. Maybe one day I’ll actually be able to bet on things like “Best Score and Music,” but today is not that day.
If you want an explainer of how betting odds work, this is a good one. But with that, let’s get to the picks and the odds! Also, stay tuned to my social media pages for a very fun contest that uses this article.
Game of the Year
Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 (-1500)
Death Stranding 2: On The Beach (+1300)
Donkey Kong Bananza (+1300)
Hades II (+1300)
Hollow Knight: Silksong (+1100)
Kingdom Come: Deliverance II (+4000)
It’s interesting that Expedition 33 is not nearly as highly rated as the past several winners of “Game of the Year.” Elden Ring, Baldur’s Gate 3, and Astro Bot all have better reviews on Opencritic, and yet Expedition 33 feels like the most obvious winner of any of them. More than scores or anything else, the most telltale sign of a “Game of the Year” winner is when it consistently stays in the discourse throughout the year. And simply, Expedition 33 has dominated the gaming conversation throughout almost all of 2025. There have been short stretches where all of the other games listed felt like they might be taking over, but then they almost all fade away shortly after. If you check social media, people are already arguing about Expedition 33 as if it’s won. It feels like a foregone conclusion.
If any game were to pull off a massive upset, Silksong feels like the only one with any hope. It is the one game that had a true “moment” this year with its release, and it has been very well received. But I just can’t see it happening. This should go to Expedition 33.
Best Game Direction
Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 (-1500)
Death Stranding 2: On the Beach (+1000)
Ghost of Yotei (+1500)
Hades II (+1200)
Split Fiction (+2000)
It’s not totally uncommon for “Best Game Direction” and “Game of the Year” to have different winners. It happened in 2023 with Baldur’s Gate 3 and Alan Wake 2 as a recent example. This year does not feel like one where this could happen. This award tends to go towards more cinematic games, and well, Expedition 33 is pretty freaking cinematic. It also helps that several “Game of the Year” contenders are not on this nomination list. I think this one should be pretty straightforward.
Best Narrative
Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 (-1500)
Death Stranding 2: On the Beach (+800)
Ghost of Yotei (+2000)
Kingdom Come: Deliverance II (+1500)
Silent Hill f (+2000)
The potential for an Expedition 33 sweep is very real, as you’ll see. There are only two categories where it feels like it could run into issues. “Best Narrative” shouldn’t be one of them. Expedition 33’s story is already being debated as one of the best gaming stories of all time. Personally, I think it might very well be. There are a lot of other great stories in this category. Death Stranding 2’s last two hours or so are absolutely insane. Kingdom Come: Deliverance II is consistently strong. Yet, I’d be pretty stunned if either pulled off this upset. I gave Death Stranding 2 slightly better odds than the others, but even then, it feels like a big longshot. This is another one for Expedition 33.
Best Art Direction
Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 (-1400)
Death Stranding 2: On the Beach (+1000)
Ghost of Yotei (+700)
Hades II (+3000)
Hollow Knight: Silksong (+2000)
The one thing that makes this a bit more interesting than some other categories is that Expedition 33 is going up against a series that has won this award in the past. Ghost of Tsushima took this award in 2020. But that is also exactly what works against Ghost of Yotei in some ways, in my opinion. When Tsushima came out, it was beyond stunning and wasn’t quite like anything else out there. Ghost of Yotei is still an amazing looking game, but we have seen this before. Expedition 33 having more “newness” should carry it to victory here.
Best Score and Music
Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 (-4000)
Death Stranding 2: On the Beach (+1500)
Ghost of Yotei (+2500)
Hades II (+2500)
Hollow Knight: Silksong (+2000)
I think Expedition 33 is a 90-95% lock in a lot of categories this year. I’m closer to 99.9% with “Best Score and Music.” Simply, it’s winning, and if it doesn’t, I’ll assume we had a La La Land/Moonlight situation and someone was given the wrong envelope. The soundtrack has been talked about nonstop this year, and the story behind it is even better. There’s also a reason that Geoff had an Expedition 33 performance at his Gamescom showcase. I hope Lorien Testard has his speech ready to go.
Best Audio Design
Battlefield 6 (+400)
Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 (+350)
Death Stranding 2: On the Beach (+500)
Ghost of Yotei (+400)
SIlent Hill f (+250)
This is the first time in my three years of doing this that I have felt like any of the nominees could potentially win an award. There is no clear favorite on this one. Battlefield 6 is the only FPS here, and this award has been won by an FPS in the past. Ghost of Tsushima and the original Death Stranding both had nominations here in the past, so they can’t be overlooked. This was the one category where I didn’t think Expedition 33 would get a nomination, but since it’s here, it certainly can’t be overlooked.
But I’m just going to go ahead and go with the one survival horror game here. I’m calling Silent Hill f the loose favorite, as audio design and survival horror go so hand in hand, but this award has gone to plenty of different genres over the years, so it’s anyone’s ball game.
Best Performance
Ben Starr as Verso- Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 (+300)
Charlie Cox as Gustave- Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 (+1500)
Erika Ishii as Atsu- Ghost of Yotei (+250)
Jennifer English as Maelle- Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 (-250)
Konatsu Kato as Hinako Shimizu- Silent Hill f (+2000)
Troy Baker as Indiana Jones- Indiana Jones and the Great Circle (+175)
From the moment I finished Expedition 33, I’ve had Jennifer English circled as the almost guaranteed winner of this award, and I still mostly feel that way, but my odds put her closer to a 75% chance now, which feels appropriate.
I think the big question here is if having three nominees from Expedition 33 will hurt English’s chances. There’s a possibility that more Expedition 33 inclined voters will split their votes. While there is certainly a chance of that, I think it’s mostly unlikely. I think English easily had the strongest performance of the three and will gain most of the votes. Charlie Cox in particular is unlikely to siphon many votes away from her. Also, the one other time there were three nominees for “Best Performance” was back in 2016 for Uncharted 4. Nolan North still won the award as Nathan Drake despite this.
But I also cannot fully count out Troy Baker as Indiana Jones. His ability to sound almost exactly like Harrison Ford was remarkable, and I think he would have won this award if Indiana Jones had qualified in 2024. I also do not think the voters have forgotten that performance, despite it being almost a year ago now.
I also can’t fully count out Erika Ishii, as she was great. I am counting out Konatsu Kato, but she has to be thrilled to have made it here in such a stacked year.
Despite all that, English is my pick, and I feel pretty good about it.
Best Independent Game
Absolum (+4000)
Ball x Pit (+4000)
Blue Prince (+2000)
Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 (-1500)
Hades II (+1000)
Hollow Knight: Silksong (+900)
Considering that I said Expedition 33’s main competitor for “Game of the Year” is Hollow Knight: Silksong, it’s tough for me to change the odds much from my “Game of the Year” odds. I still have Expedition 33 as the favorite here. I considered taking the odds down a notch because there’s a slight chance it won’t receive some votes out of protest for being in this category despite being well funded. But that didn’t stop it from getting nominated, so I just don’t see that being the case. If Expedition 33 somehow loses this award, it would mean we could be potentially headed towards a very interesting night.
Best Debut Indie Game
Blue Prince (+2000)
Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 (-4000)
Despelote (+4000)
Dispatch (+2500)
I’m known for some mild Blue Prince hate on this blog, but man, what brutal luck for that game. There are plenty of years where it would essentially do what Balatro did last year, and sneak in a “Game of the Year” nomination while also easily taking this category and “Best Independent Game.” Instead, it came out in arguably one of the most stacked indie years of all time, and now it won’t even win this award, which usually would have been a layup. Expedition 33 should very easily take this one.
Best Action Game
Battlefield 6 (+2000)
Doom: The Dark Ages (+2000)
Hades II (-2000)
Ninja Gaiden 4 (+3000)
Shinobi: Art of Vengeance (+2500)
Well, it’s nice to have a category without Expedition 33, but sadly, that doesn’t make this particular category any more interesting. Hades II is the only game in the “Game of the Year” category here, and that’s usually a pretty clear indicator of victory. After a quick browse through old Game Awards winners, I can only find four instances of a “Game of the Year” nominee losing to a game that wasn’t nominated in a genre category. I don’t see a game on this list that can upset Hades II.
Best Action / Adventure Game
Death Stranding 2: On the Beach (+105)
Ghost of Yotei (+600)
Hollow Knight: Silksong (-120)
Indiana Jones and the Great Circle (+2000)
Split Fiction (+400)
This might be my most anticipated category of the night. If Expedition 33 runs away with things as I expect it to, this category feels like the winner of the runner up prize. I really wish Geoff Keighley posted full voting results for these awards.
Essentially, this is between Death Stranding 2 and Hollow Knight: Silksong as the only “Game of the Year” nominees here.
Polymarket lists Silksong as the more likely game to upset Expedition 33 for “Game of the Year.” I’d also say it had maybe the biggest moment in all of gaming this year with its release. However, Death Stranding 2 is nominated for dang near every category, and it’s in two categories that Silksong isn’t (“Audio Design” and “Best Game Direction”). It feels really close. I’m still giving the edge to Silksong because it is better reviewed and I think has a bit more buzz overall, but this one could go either way.
Best Role Playing Game
Avowed (+4000)
Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 (-4000)
Kingdom Come: Deliverance II (+2000)
Monster Hunter Wilds (+3000)
The Outer Worlds 2 (+3500)
Let’s see, we have Expedition 33 here, which is the big time favorite for “Game of the Year.” Its main competitor is Kingdom Come: Deliverance 2, which is great but was probably the last of the six games to make it in. This one should be another easy win for Expedition 33. Nothing else is even close to being a competitor.
Best Family Game
Donkey Kong Bananza (-200)
Lego Party (+4000)
Lego Voyagers (+4000)
Mario Kart World (+800)
Sonic Racing: CrossWorlds (+1500)
Split Fiction (+150)
This one is a battle between Donkey Kong Bananza and Split Fiction, with nothing else really standing a chance. These are two of the best games this year in terms of ratings. Donkey Kong Bananza received a “Game of the Year” nomination, and Split Fiction did not, which obviously indicates a huge edge. However, Split Fiction pulled off a “Best Game Direction” and “Best Action / Adventure” nominations while Bananza did not, and I wonder what that could mean.
As I said before, history is overwhelmingly in favor of games that got the coveted “Game of the Year” nomination for these categories. However, there are exceptions. I think Split Fiction could be an interesting underdog. There’s at least a small chance that Mario Kart World steals some more Nintendo oriented vote. But I think if that happens, it will have a minimal effect. I’m still picking Bananza because of the history.
Best Sim / Strategy Game
The Alters (+300)
Civilization VII (+400)
Final Fantasy Tactics: The Ivalice Chronicles (-700)
Jurassic World Evolution 3 (+500)
Tempest Rising (+1000)
Two Point Museum (+800)
This category is a mess, with several much higher rated games being left off the list. This is probably because the voting panel hasn’t played many of these games.
The big favorite has to be Final Fantasy Tactics. Obviously, it’s a remake/remaster of a game many consider one of the best ever. It’s also the best rated game of any here.
From there, I think The Alters has a very outside chance, as it had a lot of buzz, and a decent number of people played it this year. Two Point games are also pretty popular. But unless the voters have some sort of pushback on Tactics for being a remaster of sorts, it should take this one pretty easily. And considering it was nominated, I don’t think voters will have a problem giving it the win.
Best Sports / Racing Game
EA Sports FC 26 (+300)
F1 25 (+1000)
Mario Kart World (-400)
Rematch (+500)
Sonic Racing: CrossWorlds (+250)
An important thing to remember with this category is that the voters are desperate not to pick one of the yearly sports releases. They almost never win. EA Sports FC 25 won last year, but it was one of the rare years where there were no competitors from the kind of games that more hardcore gamers generally play.
This year, we are back to having plenty of “nerd” sports and racing games nominated, so one of them should win. The obvious favorite should be Mario Kart World, as it has huge name recognition and is the best rated of the games here. Sonic Racing has pretty nice review scores too, but I still think Mario Kart World is set to win this one.
Sadly, my beautiful boy Rematch has no chance, but it’s my personal vote.
Best Multiplayer Game
ARC Raiders (+175)
Battlefield 6 (+400)
Elden Ring: Nightreign (+200)
Peak (+500)
Split Fiction (-150)
There have been very few categories without an overwhelming favorite, so it’s exciting to come across a decently saucy one. “Best Multiplayer” is one of the few categories where I feel like we have at least three different games with a real chance to win.
It Takes Two won this prize back in 2021, and Split Fiction is easily the best rated game in the category, so it deserves to be the favorite. It’s a tremendous game, and this feels like the category where Josef Fares ends up going on stage and swearing a bunch.
But we certainly can’t count out ARC Raiders either. It has become a bit of a sensation, and it surprisingly didn’t find its way into any other categories. That is the one thing that makes me skeptical about it winning here, but it should absolutely be in the running.
I also can’t count out Elden Ring: Nightreign. Remember that most of the more mixed reviews of that game were more related to single player woes. I’ve seen almost unanimous praise for the multiplayer, so it feels like a good dark horse here.
Battlefield and Peak also had their moments this year, but I’m sticking with Split Fiction.
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