With the way the actual awards element of the Game Awards was brushed to the side last year, a lot of gaming purists have taken to looking down on the show for its awards elements. And I totally understand that, but I still get pumped for this show. Not just because of the reveals, but because of the actual awards. When I look at most of the avenues that give out awards for video games, The Game Awards still seem the most accurate. And despite how the awards can often get second billing, I think winning is still a huge deal for a lot of these developers in terms of sales and attention.
We are roughly three months away from the nominations for the year dropping. Despite how many great games have been released this year, we still have a lot of awesome ones lined up. My plan was to do a post like this right before the day the nominations dropped, but the more I thought about it, the more fun I thought it’d be to project it out right now and see how I do. Obviously, I have no idea how a lot of these unreleased games will perform, so some serious projection was required on my part. So let’s get to it! Once again, these aren’t my personal picks, but just what I project will get nominated.
Make sure to keep an eye on this blog for the actual Game Awards season because I have some really cool content planned for that as well.
Games in italics have not been released yet. I also skipped categories that I just don’t have great insight into, like fighting games and sports games, as well as some others.
Game of the Year
-Elden Ring: Shadow of the Erdtree
-Final Fantasy VII: Rebirth
-Assassin’s Creed: Shadows
-Astro Bot
-Metaphor: Refantazio
-The Legend of Zelda: Echoes of Wisdom
I feel great about the first three. Rebirth and Erdtree are solidly in the lead for top OpenCritic scores this year and stand out in a myriad of ways. DLC doesn’t usually get nominated for Game of the Year, but Erdtree seems like a very easy exception to that rule based on the reception.
From there, the only one I feel truly confident in is Metaphor: Refantazio. Everything about that game looks incredible, and Persona 5 had a lot of success at The Game Awards in 2017. Metaphor looks like a true evolution on that formula in a way that I think will hit both with critics and the audience at large.
From there, we have some educated guesses. I think Ubisoft learned a lot from Valhalla, and the franchise did get a nomination in 2018 with Odyssey. Shadows looks really good from everything I have seen, and I think it’s set to make its way back to the top 6 this year.
Nintendo usually sneaks one nomination in there, and Echoes of Wisdom seems the most likely to me of everything they have upcoming (I can’t see anything they’ve dropped so far this year making it.) And Astro Bot looks like an incredibly fun game that I think will have a lot of passionate fans.
I won’t be shocked if Helldivers II sneaks in for one of these games. The 83 on OpenCritic isn’t the kind of score that usually makes it in, but some of these review scores were in part because of the bad launch performance. While the hype died down a bit, this game captured gamers’ attention like few others this year.
I also considered Dragon’s Dogma 2 in here, but I feel like reception on that game has cooled quite a bit despite the very strong review scores. Like a Dragon: Infinite Wealth could also make its way in here, but I wonder if the earlier release date hurts it. I also think Star Wars: Outlaws and STALKER 2 have shots. Balatro could even sneak in, but I actually feel pretty good about the six I selected.
Best Game Direction
-Elden Ring: Shadow of the Erdtree
-Final Fantasy VII: Rebirth
-Helldivers II
-Astro Bot
-Metaphor: Refantazio
Generally, this category is mostly just a rehash of the “Best Game” category, which makes sense. If Helldivers II doesn’t make it in for Game of the Year, like I suspect, I think it does at least sneak in here. That game just made so many smart choices with its design, and I think that has to be rewarded in some way.
Best Narrative
-1000xResist
-Banishers: Ghosts of New Eden
-Elden Ring: Shadow of the Erdtree
-Final Fantasy VII: Rebirth
-Life is Strange: Double Exposure
Now things get tricky! Yet again, Rebirth and Erdtree feel like the no-brainers. FF7: Remake was nominated in 2020, and the original Elden Ring was nominated in 2022, so both seem like solid bets to make it in.
1000xResist is many peoples pick for best story of the year in the indie scene, and in the past, that enthusiasm can carry over, even if the game isn’t quite as big. The fact that Immortality got a nomination in 2022, and that was a pretty weird game, makes me feel good about 1000xResist’s chances.
Banishers reviewed well and has my personal favorite story of the year. Most of the critiques on the game were about the combat, so I think that has a pretty good chance to get in here.
From there, Life is Strange: Double Exposure was an easy guess since the last game in that series got a best narrative nomination in 2021.
Best Art Direction
-Elden Ring: Shadow of the Erdtree
-Final Fantasy VII: Rebirth
-Senua’s Saga: Hellblade II
-Metaphor: Refantazio
-Neva
Tired of Erdtree and Rebirth yet? While Rebirth had a few technical issues with character models, the actual art direction was superb for both, and this is another category that I’d be surprised to see either left off of.
Hellblade II seems like a clear choice to get nominated, and it will probably be the favorite to win. That game is phenomenal from a technical perspective, and the art direction is just as good.
Metaphor and Neva are easy choices based on the past as well. Persona 5 was nominated in 2018, and Gris, which comes from the developers of Neva, was nominated in 2019. Neva doesn’t have a release date yet, and it needs to come out before mid November to be nominated, but if it makes it, it should be here.
With its unique claymation style, I’d love to see Harold Halibut in here, and I think it has an outside chance, but since it only received decent reviews, I could see it getting overlooked.
Best Score/Music
-Elden Ring: Shadow of the Erdtree
-Final Fantasy VII: Rebirth
-Persona 3: Reload
-Stellar Blade
-Metaphor: Refantazio
Once again, are you tired of Rebirth and Erdtree yet? Elden Ring got a music nomination in 2022, and Final Fantasy VII: Remake won in 2020 (spoilers, it is going to win here as well).
Stellar Blade has a unique and fun soundtrack that was called out in most reviews. It reviewed well overall, and I think it sneaks in here.
From there, the Atlus games both get noms in my view. Persona 3: Reload has a fantastic soundtrack as you’d expect, and it seems like Atlus is gearing up to go even crazier for Metaphor.
I’d love to slot Eiyuden Chronicles: Hundred Heroes in here, but I fear it will be forgotten since it did not review quite as well as I would have hoped.
Best Audio Design
-Elden Ring: Shadow of the Erdtree
-Senua’s Saga: Hellblade II
-Stellar Blade
-Call of Duty: Black Ops 6
-Stalker 2: Heart of Chernobyl
Oh hey, Rebirth isn’t here! While I think Rebirth has great audio design, FF7: Remake did not get a nomination for audio design, so I’m guessing it doesn’t here either. Elden Ring did get a nom for audio design in 2022, though, so that also makes it here.
The first Hellblade actually won for Audio Design in 2017, and there is no reason to think that Hellblade II won’t make it here and maybe even win.
Stellar Blade really excels in a lot of technical areas, and a lot of sword fighting type games get nominated for this traditionally, so I think this is a decent bet.
Shooters and racers also do really well in this category. We don’t have much for big-time racers this year, so I threw in Stalker 2 and Black Ops 6. The Call of Duty series does very well in this category historically.
Best Performance
-Briana White as Aerith (Final Fantasy VII: Rebirth)
-Melina Juergens as Senua (Hellblade 2)
-Humberly Gonzalez as Kay Vess (Star Wars: Outlaws)
-Tongayi Chirisa as Yasuke (Assassin’s Creed: Shadows)
-Troy Baker as Indiana Jones (Indiana Jones and the Great Circle)
Phew, this one was TOUGH. I won’t be shocked if I only get two right here. You have to be in a big budget game to get a nomination for this one usually. Melina Juergens won this award in 2017, so she was the one easy pick here. I also feel decent about Humberly Gonzales as Kay Vess getting a nom. I’ve enjoyed her work in the bit of footage I’ve seen, and she is clearly going to have a whole lot of dialogue in Star Wars: Outlaws.
I was stunned when I looked back and saw that Final Fantasy VII: Remake received no nominations in 2020 for best performance. I feel like with all of the emotional moments in Rebirth and the longer game, it will be hard to keep someone from making it this year. While I like a few performances more, Briana White feels like the biggest star in the cast, and she does have an excellent performance as Aerith. I almost put John Eric Bentley in here as Barrett, but that felt like a bit of wishcasting.
From there, I just took shots in the dark with Chirisa and Baker. Baker has received nominations before, and Chirisa is going to have a big role as Yasuke in Assassin’s Creed: Shadows. The Assassin’s Creed series is no stranger to having nominations in this category, and he seemed like the most likely to get it here.
If I was picking all the nominations, we’d have something like four nominations from Rebirth and one from Banishers. The BigNerdGaming Game Awards will be peak, I assure you.
Best Independent Game
-1000xResist
-Animal Well
-Balatro
-Hollow Knight: Silksong
-The Plucky Squire
I feel 100% confident that Balatro will have a spot here. From there, it’s going to get tricky. 1000xResist has a very passionate fanbase and reviewed very well, so I think that will get the game a nomination. Animal Well is also one of the best reviewed games this year and seemed to get played by a decent number of people.
From there, it all depends on what actually comes out this year. If Silksong and The Plucky Squire come out, as they are supposed to, I think the odds are that both will be 9/10 type games that get a lot of attention. But neither has an actual release date, so it’s tough to say. There are also a plethora of random indie games that could release out of nowhere and shock us. This is a tough one to project.
Best Action Game
-Destiny 2: The Final Shape
-Helldivers II
-Senua’s Saga: Hellblade II
-Stellar Blade
-Call of Duty: Black Ops 6
It’s always tough to project exactly what bucket some of these games will get sorted into. A lot of the games I thought about for this, like Black Myth Wukong, seem to have enough RPG elements where they won’t get in here. I also thought about Prince of Persia: The Lost Crown, but Metroidvania games seem to get sorted more into the action adventure category.
I thought long and hard about whether Stellar Blade would get sorted here, but its open world elements were pretty limited, so I think it will qualify more as an action game over action adventure. Its RPG elements are also very limited, so once again, I think it fits well here.
Hellblade II getting in would definitely cause criticism since you do a lot of walking. But I’m also not sure where else it would go. It still had pretty strong reviews, and since “narrative game” isn’t its own genre, I think this is its best bet. There just aren’t a lot of big and well reviewed games in the pure action category this year.
From there, it was simply throwing in all of the biggest shooters coming out this year.
Best Action/Adventure Game
-Dragon’s Dogma 2
-Prince of Persia: The Lost Crown
-Assassin’s Creed: Shadows
-Astro Bot
-The Legend of Zelda: Echoes of Wisdom
Once again, it was tricky to figure out which games would go here and which would go into RPG. Dragon’s Dogma 2 has light enough RPG elements where I think it goes into action adventure. This is also the category where I think The Lost Crown gets some deserved shine.
From there, I just put in all of my game of the year nominations that I didn’t have another home for. Assassin’s Creed seems like it could also go into role playing games, but past games have been nominated into this category.
Best Role Playing Game
-Elden Ring: Shadow of the Erdtree
-Final Fantasy VII: Rebirth
-Like a Dragon: Infinite Wealth
-Persona 3: Reload
-Metaphor: Refantazio
Once again, it is simple enough to slot in three of my game of the year nomination predictions. From there, Like a Dragon: Infinite Wealth has a real shot of getting nominated for the main game of the year, so I think it should slot in here.
I debated between Paper Mario, Mario and Luigi, and Persona 3 for the last slot. I decided to go with Persona 3 since I’m assuming voters might be OK just sliding the Nintendo games into best family game instead.
Best Family Game
-Paper Mario: The Thousand Year Door
-Astro Bot
-Lego Horizon Adventures
-Mario and Luigi: Brothership
-The Legend of Zelda: Echoes of Wisdom
Four out of my five picks here haven’t been released yet! I guess a lot of kids are going to have a great holiday season this year! This category traditionally goes to Nintendo games, with some Lego games and others making their way into the mix. We have plenty of very family-friendly Nintendo games that I expect to be well reviewed this year. A new Lego game and Astro Bot all feel like they will round out the mix nicely.
Best Sim/Strategy Game
-Kunitsu-Gami: Path of the Goddess
-Steamworld Heist II
-Unicorn Overlord
-Age of Mythology: Retold
-Microsoft Flight Simulator 2024
There are always a lot of well reviewed indie strategy games out there, but it’s tough to tell which games people have actually played enough to vote for. I feel really good about Microsoft Flight Simulator, Unicorn Overlord, and Age of Mythology here. Unicorn Overlord is fantastic and has a decent amount of sales and attention. Age of Mythology and Flight Simulator are set to be two of the bigger releases in these genres as well.
I actually think Kunitsu-Gami is a decent bet to make it in, too. It was published by Capcom and is on Xbox Game Pass. It has gotten a surprising amount of attention for a niche game and has reviewed well.
Steamworld Heist II was actually released today and also has good reviews. Once again, there are better reviewed strategy games out there, but I expect more people to play this one, and it has more appeal to those who don’t care for the genre as much, so I think it sneaks in.
Best Multiplayer Game
-Destiny 2: The Final Shape
-Helldivers II
-Tekken 8
-Call of Duty: Black Ops 6
-Super Mario Party Jamboree
This one was surprisingly easy to put together. Helldivers II and Tekken 8 are locks. Despite being DLC, people are going to look for ways to honor The Final Shape. And then Call of Duty and Super Mario Party are both no strangers to this category. There could be one surprise in here, but I’d be surprised if I don’t have at least four of these correct.
If you read this far… congrats on being a sicko like me. This has been a great year for video games, and 2024 is going to have a really fun awards season.
Big Nerd Gaming 
Leave a comment