UPDATE: These predictions are from June. My final predictions are now posted here.
For those who don’t know, it’s time for me to come clean. I am a Game Awards sicko. I absolutely love it. I have a lot of justifications for my sickness, which I’ll probably go more into during my coverage at the end of the year, but a big reason why is that it’s just fun. I play almost every big video game in a year, so I enjoy comparing my own picks with the selections from the panel. I also think The Game Awards normally do a pretty decent job with picking nominees and winners, considering no major showcase is going to be super indie heavy.
Part of the fun of The Game Awards for me is using all of my “research” throughout the year to predict what nominees will end up being there for all of the categories. Last year, in my column right before the Game Awards, I ended up predicting 73% of the nominees correctly, and 88% of the picks that I considered “locks.” I think that is pretty good! I see other Game Awards prediction columns out there, but a good chunk of those just predict the main award and not everything else. I try and go for (almost) everything.
While I like to predict The Game Awards right before the nominees are picked, I also like to do a “way too early” prediction as well. This is obviously almost impossible. I tried this in August last year and ended up getting 58% of my predictions right. Considering plenty of games I predicted ended up not getting released at all or ended up being duds, I actually think this was pretty solid work. So I’m doing it again, but even earlier this time.
If you want a sneak peek at what games will get nominated this time around, this is literally the only place where you will find in-depth predictions. I AM THE ONLY ONE DOING THIS. I hope you enjoy the fruits of my disease.
Games in italics have not been released yet.
Game of the Year
-Clair Obscur: Expedition 33
-Death Stranding 2
-Donkey Kong Bananza
-Ghost of Yotei
-Monster Hunter Wilds
-Split Fiction
To this point, I’d probably put two of these into “lock” status, and the rest could be all over the place. Expedition 33 is an obvious lock. It’s the highest-rated game this year on Opencritic, and we aren’t going to get six games in 6 months that are higher rated. This may be bold for a game that hasn’t been released yet, but I am also fine with putting Death Stranding 2 on as a lock. Kojima let select media members play the game for 30 hours a few months back, which is unprecedented, and all I saw afterward was universal praise. It feels like the game takes the great core of Death Stranding 2 and fixes a lot of pain points around the edges. My prediction is that across the entire show, we will see an epic battle between Expedition 33 and Death Stranding 2. I think it’s going to be one of the best Game of the Year debates in show history.
From there, I feel pretty good about Ghost of Yotei making it to the top 6. Ghost of Tsushima was a nominee in a tough 2020, and that game had plenty of things that can be improved upon. If they do a bit better with their open world design and have a more consistently interesting story, it has a lot of potential to make it here. I also think Split Fiction has pretty strong odds of making it here. It Takes Two won Game of the Year in 2021, and Split Fiction was an even better game. It has a 90 on Opencritic, so it isn’t a lock, but it has a good chance.
From there, I selected Monster Hunter Wilds since Monster Hunter World was also a nominee back in 2018. Wilds is really well rated, but it’s also on the edge of where a game of the year nominee is usually rated, so this is a fringe one.
From there, it feels likely that at least one Nintendo game will make it up here. We have two big exclusives from Nintendo this year with Donkey Kong Bananza and Metroid Prime 4 (and Pokémon Legends Z-A, but yeah, that’s not making it here). Metroid Prime has been a series that consistently gets 90+ on Metacritic, so it can not be discounted. But Donkey Kong Bananza is apparently being made by the Super Mario Odyssey team, and it will be the one big Nintendo game that is only on the Switch 2. My current money is on Bananza being the one that breaks through.
I also considered Blue Prince and Kingdom Come: Deliverance 2, and I’d definitely say they all have a shot, but they ended up just on the outside here.
Best Game Direction
-Clair Obscur: Expedition 33
-Death Stranding 2
-Donkey Kong Bananza
-Ghost of Yotei
-Monster Hunter Wilds
-Split Fiction
There are occasional exceptions, but Best Game Direction tends to mostly align with Game of the Year. All of the Best Game Direction nominees were the same as Game of the Year last year, and with what I predicted, I don’t see a need to switch anything up for this category.
Best Narrative
-Clair Obscur: Expedition 33
-Death Stranding 2
-Ghost of Yotei
-Indiana Jones and the Great Circle
-Kingdom Come: Deliverance 2
Once again, Expedition 33 and Death Stranding 2 are the easiest picks. Expedition 33’s story is already being discussed as one of the best of all time, and the original Death Stranding is also in that category for me, and had a nomination last time around.
Ghost of Tsushima had a Best Narrative nomination as well back in 2020, so I think it makes it back to the category with Ghost of Yotei.
Indiana Jones and the Great Circle came out in December of 2024, so it wasn’t eligible for The Game Awards that year. That game was very highly rated and had a story that many thought was worthy of the original movies, so it gets the nod here. Finally, I also think Kingdom Come: Deliverance 2 sneaks in here, even if it doesn’t make the Game of the Year shortlist. I’m not done with it yet, but it has an excellent story and some really great side quests, too.
I considered Dispatch, which is being made by former Telltale employees and has a demo that is getting a lot of praise. I also considered Mafia: The Old Country, but I’ve seen mixed reviews of some of the stories in that series. I think if that story hits, it’s probably got a good chance of being here instead of something else.
Best Art Direction
-Clair Obscur: Expedition 33
-Death Stranding 2
-Dispatch
-Ghost of Yotei
-South of Midnight
Are you sick of Expedition 33 and Death Stranding 2 yet? Both are very easy picks here. Expedition 33 has some of the best art direction I have ever seen, and everything I’ve seen from Death Stranding 2 looks phenomenal. The original Death Stranding also had an art direction nomination.
Ghost of Yotei also seems like an easy enough choice, as Ghost of Tsushima won this award in 2020, and I have no reason to expect that art direction to go downhill.
From there, it gets a bit trickier. I feel like if Dispatch releases in 2025, that one will be a no-brainer. The visuals in the game make it look like you are playing a really great looking cartoon. The only questions for me are if it releases and if it will be big enough to get a nomination.
South of Midnight is my last pick. In terms of what deserves a nomination, this is another really easy choice. The stopmotion and clay art design is really cool, and the game is consistently striking. However, it only had decent reviews and probably won’t have as many people play it as some other games on here. Regardless, I think how unique it is will help it make it here despite those obstacles.
Best Score and Music
-Clair Obscur: Expedition 33
-Death Stranding 2
-DOOM: The Dark Ages
-Metal Gear Solid Delta: Snake Eater
-Mixtape
This is one of the toughest ones to project, as outside of past track records, it’s not easy to project what will have a great soundtrack.
I do have at least a few that feel like locks, though. Expedition 33 is the easiest. Its 8 hour soundtrack is absolutely fantastic, and many consider it to be one of the best soundtracks in gaming history. I’d already say that it is very likely to win.
Death Stranding 2 is the other one that feels the most like a lock here. The original Death Stranding had a best music nomination, and everything I’ve heard from Death Stranding 2 previews is that the music might be even better here.
From there, I have my best guesses. Normally, a DOOM game would feel like a lock to be here, since Mick Gordon is so well regarded, but with The Dark Ages going in a different direction and having a slightly more generic metal soundtrack, there’s been a lot of more mixed reactions. But the more I play that game, the more I still think the soundtrack cooks in a lot of ways. I could see critics being afraid to nominate it because of that, but I do genuinely think that it still will deserve to be here, so Im guessing it will be.
Normally, I’d feel weird about throwing a remake in a best soundtrack category, but remakes have had some good success in recent years here. Silent Hill 2 and Rebirth are great examples. So I think Metal Gear Solid Delta also sneaks in.
Mixtape is my darkhorse pick. The developers revealed a big soundtrack during Summer Game Fest, with artists like The Cure and Smashing Pumpkins. The developer’s last game, The Artful Escape, was also nominated here in 2021, so I think it has a real shot of making it again.
Best Audio Design
-Call of Duty: Black Ops 7
-DOOM: The Dark Ages
-Ghost of Yotei
-Indiana Jones and the Great Circle
-Silent Hill f
This is traditionally the action game and survival horror category, so I am, of course, going to lean in that direction.
Call of Duty games are a mainstay in this category, so Black Ops 7 is an easy first choice after its reveal at Summer Game Fest.
DOOM Eternal got a nomination for this category in 2020, so DOOM: The Dark Ages feels like a good bet to get here as well as a popular and well rated FPS. I have similar logic with Ghost of Yotei. Ghost of Tsushima got a nomination in 2020, so I think Yotei will slide it in as well.
Indiana Jones and the Great Circle might be a darkhorse with its December release last year, but I think the voters will remember it. Its sound effects for things like the whip and all the various things you could bash Nazis with were all fantastic.
SIlent Hill f is just a logical pick as what looks to be one of the biggest survival horror games of the year.
I won’t be shocked if Expedition 33 and Death Stranding 2 work their way in here, but this might be the one category where voters can actually keep them out from being in everything.
Best Performance
-Troy Baker as Indiana Jones (Indiana Jones and the Great Circle)
-Jennifer English as Maelle (Clair Obscur: Expedition 33)
-Elle Fanning as Tomorrow (Death Stranding 2)
-Erika Ishii as Atsu (Ghost of Yotei)
-Ben Starr as Verso (Clair Obscur: Expedition 33)
I at least feel quite confident in two of these. Troy Baker is a complete no-brainer for a nomination here. There were a lot of Troy Baker haters in the lead up to Indiana Jones, and Troy Baker shut them all up with an incredible performance that was eerily similar to Harrison Ford in his prime.
Jennifer English as Maelle also feels pretty close to a lock. She delivers an incredible and well-rounded performance in Expedition 33. She is also an established name, which I feel like probably helps here.
We haven’t had two best performance nominations from the same game the last few years, but it actually used to happen a lot. I think Ben Starr did enough to earn a nomination with his performance as Verso as well. He is also one of the biggest names in video game voice acting, which once again probably helps.
I feel like with the amount of cutscenes and how good the story in Death Stranding 2 should be, there will inevitably be at least one person who gets a nomination for their performance. Elle Fanning is my guess as the one this time around. She is a big name, and everything I’ve read makes me feel like she is going to have a major role in this story. Norman Reedus got a nomination in 2019, but with 5 slots instead of 6 for this category now, I think he will be on the outside looking in (I also can’t believe he got a nomination last time around, but thats another story).
Finally, I went with Erika Ishii from Ghost of Yotei. Daisuke Tsuji got a nomination for Tshushima in 2020, and I wasn’t even that impressed with his performance. Erika might actually be a better performer, and the big role could be a big aid in helping her get to this slot.
Best Independent Game
-Blue Prince
-Clair Obscur: Expedition 33
-Hollow Knight: Silksong
-Pipistrello and the Cursed Yoyo
-Mina the Hollower
This feels like it could be one of the most high-profile “Best Independent Game” categories ever.
Expedition 33 feels like a lock to both be nominated and win the category here. There was a part of me that wonders if the game looks too much like a triple-a game to get nominated here. Baldur’s Gate 3 did not get a nomination for this category in 2023, but that also feels like a very unique circumstance. The whole “Expedition 33 had a team of 30 people” narrative is so strong that I think the game slots in here (that narrative isn’t fully true but with Geoff Keighley saying it at Summer Game Fest again, I don’t think it’s a narrative that is going to go away.)
Blue Prince also feels like a lock to be nominated. The game is very highly rated and had a lot of buzz. It even has an outside shot at the full-on Game of the Year category, so there’s no way it doesn’t show up here.
From there, I have two games from very high-profile indie developers. It’s finally not a joke to say that Hollow Knight: Silksong should be out this year. It has essentially been confirmed and promised as a game that will be available day one on the new Xbox portable system. The first game had a 90 on Opencritic, so if it’s even close to the quality of the first game, it should be OK. Shovel Knight also is on Opencritic with an 89, and the trailer at SGF from Mina the Hollower looked fantastic. Yacht Club is very high profile, so I also feel pretty good about that one.
The only hard pick here for me was my 5th slot. I considered the upcoming Ninja Gaiden: Ragebound, Shinobi: Art of Vengeance, Sword of the Sea, and a few other indies that look fantastic and have confirmed release dates. But I decided to play it safe and go with one of the highest rated indies currently out. Pipistrello and the Cursed Yoyo is sitting at an 88 on Opencritic, and I keep seeing buzz around it (I’m picking it up very soon). It feels like the safest bet for now.
Best Action Game
-Call of Duty: Black Ops 7
-DOOM: The Dark Ages
-Ninja Gaiden 4
-Shinobi: Art of Vengeance
-The First Berserker: Khazan
I feel pretty good about two of these, but the rest are all a bit shaky.
DOOM: The Dark Ages is the easy lock here. It is the highest-rated AAA action game this year so far, so it should have no problem getting in.
I also feel quite good about Ninja Gaiden 4. PlatinumGames is a regular in this category, and everything I’ve seen from the game looks fantastic.
From there, it gets trickier. Call of Duty: Black Ops 6 was very well reviewed and had a nomination last year. The trailer for Black Ops 7 at the recent Xbox showcase made me feel like the single-player campaign will be a high priority again, so I think it gets in again.
Shinobi: Art of Vengeance was a bold one, as the 2D games have a harder time getting nominated at times. But I think this has a few things in its favor. First off, it’s a SEGA game, so it’s not some indie. It will have a decent marketing push. The same developer made Streets of Rage 4, which got a nomination in this category in 2020, so that also bodes well.
I struggled with the last one. Borderlands 4 is an option, but I wonder if the rhetoric from Randy Pitchford in the buildup to that game will diminish its reception. Ninja Gaiden: Ragebound looks incredible, but indie games have a much harder fight to get in with these categories. Because of that, I went with the safer option and threw in The First Berserker: Khazan. It is sitting at an 81 on opencritic, and it has a real shot of making it in. It is definitely going to only barely make it in if it does, though.
Best Action/Adventure Game
-Death Stranding 2
-Donkey Kong Bananza
-Ghost of Yotei
-Indiana Jones and the Great Circle
-Metroid Prime 4: Beyond
We are heavy on the unreleased games for this category!
Death Stranding 2, Donkey Kong Bananza, and Ghost of Yotei all feel like near locks to me despite being unreleased. Death Stranding and Ghost of Tsushima both were in this category in the past, and I have no reason to expect their sequels to be any worse.
Super Mario Odyssey was nominated for this category in 2017, and Bananza is apparently being made by the same devs. That one also looks great from everything I’ve seen.
I feel pretty dang good about Indiana Jones and the Great Circle as well. While it came out last year, it sits at an 87 on Opencritic, and I don’t think it’ll have a problem being remembered come nomination time.
My last pick is Metroid Prime 4: Beyond. This could be a Game of the Year nominee as well, as this series consistently gets in the 90s and higher on Opencritic. We haven’t seen much, but it should be really good.
Best RPG
-Clair Obscur: Expedition 33
-Fantasy Life i: The Girl Who Steals Time
-Kingdom Come: Deliverance 2
-Monster Hunter WIlds
-The Outer Worlds 2
I feel pretty good about all of my picks on this one.
Clair Obscur: Expedition 33, Kingdom Come: Deliverance 2, and Monster Hunter Wilds are all easy ones. Expedition 33 is a lock to be a Game of the Year nominee, and Kingdom Come: Deliverance 2 and Monster Hunter Wilds are both serious contenders to be nominated. They should all be here.
I looked at other options, but at this point, Fantasy Life i: The Girl Who Steals Time might be a damn near lock as well. It is currently at an 87 on Opencritic, and that can not be overlooked.
The only unreleased game here is The Outer Worlds 2. I won’t be shocked if Lies of P: Overture makes it here instead, but while DLC can get nominations, it also has a tougher path, so I’m sticking with The Outer Worlds 2. The original game reviewed quite well, and the sequel looks significantly better to me. It’s going to be way bigger, and the combat looks so much better. I think it has a great shot to be here.
Best Family Game
-Donkey Kong Bananza
-Fantasy Life i: The Girl Who Steals Time
-Kirby Air Riders
-Mario Kart World
-Split Fiction
This category is always a bit tricky because it’s always tough to say what exactly people will think of as “family games.” Also, keep in mind that there are many examples of games getting nominated in this category and in other genres.
In many ways, this is basically the Nintendo category, so any highly rated Nintendo game is an easy bet. Mario Kart World has very solid reviews so far, and I expect Bananza and Kirby Air Riders to review well, too.
I also threw in Fantasy Life i. This is definitely a game that kids can sink their teeth into (also, there is poop humor), and the great reviews show that it is very well regarded.
Finally, I put Split Fiction in here. Back in 2021, when It Takes Two won Game of the Year, it did not get any nominations for Best Action game or Action Adventure. I think people have a hard time putting these games into a box. However, it did win Best Family in 2021, so I have to guess it will be here as well.
Best Sim/Strategy
-Civilization 7
-Final Fantasy Tactics: The Ivalice Chronicles
-Powerwash Simulator 2
-The Hundred Line: Last Defense Academy
-Two Point Museum
This category was a very tough one to predict last year. Somehow, an early access game ended up in, and the highest rated strategy game of the year (Satisfactory) did not. I feel like since the critics don’t play this genre as much, it ends up going in weird directions, but let’s try out best.
Civilization 7 surprisingly reviewed way lower than it usually does, as it sits at a 79 on Opencritic. But with how barren this category can be, and with its huge name value, I think it still makes it in.
I am hesitant to put a remaster here, but once again, this category being pretty empty makes me feel like the Final Fantasy Tactics remaster will make it in.
Powerwash Simulator was huge, so I also think the sequel can make it here since that will also be very high profile.
Finally, I have two of the highest rated strategy games this year. The Hundred Line and Two Point Museum are both at the mid 80s on Opencritic, and they should be contenders to be nominated and maybe even win.
Best Multiplayer
-Borderlands 4
-Call of Duty: Black Ops 7
-Mario Kart World
-Monster Hunter Wilds
-Split Fiction
The three that are already released feel like locks here. It Takes Two won this category in 2021, and Monster Hunter: World has been nominated before. Mario Kart World is also an easy pick. All three have well-regarded multiplayer and have reviewed well.
The other two are also simply enough. Borderlands 3 has been nominated before, so Borderlands 4 feels likely. Same with the Call of Duty games.
Part of me really thinks Rematch, which is basically Rocket League but actual soccer (that sounds ridiculous to type) has a real chance too, but the other 5 games here are huge releases, so they will have the edge. I thought Splitgate 2 also had a chance, but after playing it, I do not think it will be here sadly.
Phew, we made it! Stay tuned into the blog, as I will have my final predictions the week before they are announced! If you enjoyed the post, please consider following me on social media, or subscribing to my podcast!
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